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    美豆震蕩,連粕暴漲知多少

    市場分析 2019-08-13 427 0 0
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    久違的8月USDA報告如期而至,數據公布明顯利多美豆周一卻選擇下跌讓很多投資者詫異!在等待連粕回調好買入準備中,連粕周二上午短暫回調後急速上漲并一舉突破上周震蕩區間,截止發稿01主力合約大漲66點漲幅2%,成交216萬手,增倉15.9萬手量價齊升有進一步上漲可能。從盤面大周期看5月份一浪大漲400點後6-7月二浪調整到2750關鍵支撐位後8月開始上漲,如果按标準形态看2760+400點目标位置3150附近。

     

    反觀美豆周一報告數據明明減産20%,大大利好的數據周一卻下跌!讓大多數交易者感到不解?但是周二電子盤止跌反彈重新反彈至890附近,基本收複周一跌幅。新季美豆減産進一步夯實美豆底部形态,後市或将震蕩向上。

    仔細回顧下8月USDA供需報告:美新豆播種面積7670萬英畝(預估8100、上月8000、上年8920),收割面積7590萬英畝(預估7990、上月7930、上年8810),單産48.5蒲(預估47.5、上月48.5、上年51.6),産量36.80億蒲(預估37.83、上月38.45、上年45.44),出口17.75億蒲(上月18.75,上年17.00),壓榨21.15億蒲(上月21.15、上年20.65),期末庫存7.55億蒲(預期8.21,上月7.95,上年10.70)。美新豆單産維持上月預估不變但産量預估仍因面積下調而意外被調低,壓榨維持上月預估不變而出口預估則有所調低,然而期末結轉庫存依舊遭遇下調,且明顯低于此前預期,本次報告對大豆市場影響偏多。單産維持48.5蒲式耳/英畝不變,主要過去幾周美國大豆主産區未有惡劣天氣。種植面積進一步下調主因還是在于豆農對缺少中國買家的悲觀所緻。

    值得注意的是,如果9月報告數據不變美豆新季大豆将減産20%近2400萬噸,海關總署8日公布,中國7月份大豆進口864萬噸,較上月651.32萬噸增加212.68萬噸,增幅32.65%;較去年同期797.41萬噸增加66.59萬噸,增幅8.35%;1-7月大豆進口4690.57萬噸,較去年同期5284.54萬噸降幅11.24%。雖然中國非洲豬瘟疫情短期難以解決但是最悲觀時期已經過去,國内産業上下遊已出現過度悲觀預期,1-7月進口大豆同比降幅11.24%減少進口近600萬噸,非洲豬瘟疫情市場已充分交易到位。後市需求短期震蕩,中長期或将逐步走出低谷。但是因中美貿易戰緻全球大豆種植格局變化,美國豆農大幅減種四季度是巴西19/20年季種植期,如果盤面不給好價格巴西豆農種植積極性有所變化明年豆粕價格或将打開上漲空間。

     

    總結:關于邏輯新季美豆減産超制約美豆下跌空間,夯實美豆底部形态。貿易戰緊張,人民币貶值,全球大豆庫存消費比數據下行推動國内豆粕上漲。關于交易國内現貨上漲弱于連盤期貨,盤面連續上漲後注意産業套保力量,貿易戰也不會一直緊張下去,注意後期階段性緩和和9月份美豆上市後對市場的短期壓力。

    來源:南京瑪雅咨詢;作者:瑪雅咨詢研發部;農産品期貨網轉載本文僅為傳播更多信息為目的,并不表示本網認可文中作者觀點。若轉載文章作者有認為本網有不妥之處,請緻電本網010-51289506聯系,本網将立即與您磋商并解決相關事宜。

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